Introduction
When you think of the words “ejected” or “kicked-out” in the context of a sports game, you likely assume that a player has been removed from the game for unsportsmanlike conduct. However, there is one (and I believe only one) sport in which an ejection holds a different connotation and is a frequent occurrence: Water Polo!
Background Information
Ranked by Bleacher Report as the most demanding sport in the world, ejections are commonplace in the pool, with a player needing to receive three kick-outs before being removed from the game. An ejection occurs when a player commits a major foul. Some causes for a kick-out include holding, sinking, or pulling back an opponent without the ball. Should a player be ejected, they must swim to the penalty area at the corner of the pool and remain there for 20 seconds, until a goal is scored, or until the defense regains possession—whichever comes first. During this time, the team whose player is ejected plays with one fewer defender, and the opposition has a numerical advantage. Meanwhile, ordinary fouls hold no adverse effect and simply result in a free throw for the fouled player. They are entirely legal, with physical contact, strength, speed, endurance, agility, and skill among the plethora of factors that play a significant role in determining a team’s success. So, with these many fluctuating factors, one would assume that making any predictions would be extremely difficult, right? Wrong…
General Statistics
Let’s focus on one crucial aspect of the intense game: the 6 on 5 power-play. This scenario occurs when a defensive player commits a major foul, resulting in a 20-second man-up powerplay for the opposition. While one might incorrectly assume that scoring in such a situation should be straightforward, the average scoring rate on such plays at the highest international level surprisingly lies below 50%. Though it may seem that having an extra player in the pool for the power-play should allow the offense to move the ball to find the open player with no defender to shoot at a net guarded by just the goalie, there is actually an immense amount of strategy that goes into the defense in such situations to force a shot from the outside with ideally two hands shot-blocking along with the goalie. Let’s look at the exact conversion percentages in three major tournaments with similar fields to discover the trends over time and the underlying correlation between 6 on 5 accuracy and victory.
Tokyo 2020
During the elimination rounds comprising of 12 intense matches between evenly matched opponents in Tokyo 2020, a clear trend emerged as the team with a superior power-play conversion rate emerged victorious in 75% of the encounters. Although the losing teams displayed a heightened aggression in their attempts, engaging in nearly three more 6 on 5 opportunities compared to their triumphant counterparts (12 attempts for losers versus 9 for winners), the losers faced a challenge in converting these possessions efficiently, with a notable 13% lower success rate (36% for losers compared to 49% for winners).
Fukuoka 2023
Fukuoka 2023 followed a similar pattern as Tokyo 2020 as the elimination rounds, revealed that once again 75% of the victories were claimed by the team boasting a superior power-play conversion rate. Even more notably, no team managed to secure a win with a lower 6 on 5 scoring percentage after the quarterfinals. Despite winners attempting marginally fewer 6 on 5 opportunities than the losers (9 attempts for losers compared to 8.25 for winners), the conversion efficiency told a nuanced story. The defeated teams faced a challenge in capitalizing on these scoring opportunities, registering an approximately 8% lower success rate (40% for losers compared to 48% for winners).
Doha 2024
Once again following the trend examined in Tokyo 2020 and Fukuoka 2023, the 12 games in the elimination round of Doha 2024 consisted of only 1 game in which the team with a lower power-play conversion rate came out victorious. Despite winners once again attempting fewer 6 on 5 opportunities than the losers (9.50 attempts for losers compared to 7.33 for winners), the conversion efficiency highlighted a contrasting narrative. The defeated teams faced a challenge in capitalizing on these scoring opportunities, registering an approximately 12% lower success rate (41% for losers compared to 53% for winners).
Comparisons
While a common misconception would be that the team with a greater number of 6 on 5 attempts would be more likely to win, all three of these tournaments conversely had losing teams attempting more power-plays than their counterparts (more on this in the Final Insights section). This surprising detail can be partially attributed to the fact that referees are more incentivized to blow their whistle signaling an exclusion favoring the team that is trailing in any given game, merely due to the human tendency to prefer a closer match. On the other hand, the determining factor was the percentage of those man-up possessions that were scored, with the average conversion rate for the teams that came out on top lingering near the 50% mark. Furthermore, the three tournaments highlighted some intriguing takeaways on how the sport has developed over just 4 years. With new rules consistently being introduced to the game along with enhanced strategies, the number of power-plays differed significantly in the events: the number of 6 on 5s earned in Tokyo 2020 was a whopping 49 more than the respective exclusions in Doha 2024, with each tournament progressively containing a fewer total number of powerplay attempts. However, the corresponding conversion rates between winners and losers fluctuated much more over the year, with the difference in those numbers being a mere 8% in 2023 versus a much more indicative 13% back in 2020 and 12% this year in 2024. Nevertheless, there has undeniably been a steady climb in the overall average with Doha’s 47% topping the 44% conversion in Fukuoka and 41% in Tokyo.
Final Insights
The rationale behind the losing teams having attempted a greater number of 6 on 5 power-plays can be attributed to the economic concept of opportunity cost. Opportunity cost is the value of the foregone next best alternative when a decision is made. In the context of water polo, teams must constantly make strategic decisions about when to risk committing a foul that could lead to an ejection and a 6 on 5 power play for the opposing team. While some kick-outs are undoubtedly unwarranted and should have been avoided altogether, others are purposefully taken to stop a near-certain goal. For the team committing the foul, the opportunity cost of not committing the foul could be higher if the alternative is allowing the opposing team to score easily. This is particularly relevant when defending against a high probability scoring chance. For example, when the ball is passed to the set (the player in the middle of the pool closest to the opposition’s cage), the defender must choose whether to wait for the crash from the nearby defenders to help steal the ball or to take the ejection should he believe his teammates are too far away. As the conversion rate from the set when he is able to get a shot off is significantly above the 6 on 5 accuracy, intentionally taking a kick-out would be forgoing an approximately 20% chance of stopping a goal while allowing the set to shoot would be forgoing around a 50% saving probability. Evidently, the defensive team is about 30% more likely to get a stop by purposefully drowning the set and taking the ejection than merely hoping that the shot is missed. Circling back to the data from the three tournaments, it appears that the winning teams more successfully implemented this strategy as they came out victorious despite conceding more power-plays.
Conclusions
Man-up power-plays have been a vital component of teams’ success in water polo for many years. However, as the sport continues to develop, the importance of these possessions has spiked in magnitude. With fewer overall attempts in recent years, the significance of each individual 6 on 5 is heightened while the gap between opposing teams’ rates remains uncertain. Recently, another new 2-meter rule had been implemented, allowing offensive players to remain within 2 meters of the opposing team’s goal so long as they are far enough outside the post of the cage. This provided a significant advantage for the offense, and as we saw in Doha 2024, the conversion percentage continued to spike upwards. So, although at the current moment in time a baseline average conversion percentage of approximately 50% seems ideal, the rate will inevitably continue to fluctuate and the most successful teams will be those who are most able to adapt to the new conditions and continue finding the back of the net on a consistent basis.
Sources
Siddell, Chris. “What Is the Toughest Sport in the World?” Bleacher Report, October 4, 2017. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/832927-what-is-the-worlds-toughest-sport.
Total Waterpolo. “Tokyo 2020 Men’s Olympic Water Polo – Total Waterpolo,” August 8, 2021. https://total-waterpolo.com/tokyo-2020-mens-olympic-water-polo-tournament/.
Total Waterpolo. “World Aquatics Championships – Fukuoka 2023 Men – Total Waterpolo,” July 27, 2023. https://total-waterpolo.com/world-aquatics-championships-fukuoka-2023-men/#.
Total Waterpolo. “World Championships Doha 2024 – Men – Total Waterpolo,” February 15, 2024. https://total-waterpolo.com/world-championships-doha-2024-men/.